Why You Shouldn’t Draft Bijan Robinson in 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues
The debate over Bijan Robinson’s dynasty fantasy football value has been alive and well for months. The consensus top running back headed into the 2023 NFL Draft, he’s about as can’t miss as it gets.
Looking for a physical specimen? You’ve got it. Covet elite college production against stiff competition? He’ll deliver it to your mom with flowers. Desire someone with the ability to put a franchise on their back and put up huge numbers? Robinson is your guy.
He undeniably checks all of the boxes. But you still (probably) shouldn’t draft him first overall in your 2023 dynasty draft. Why? I’ve got a few good reasons.
Bijan Alone Won’t Save Your (Probably) Terrible Team
If you’re picking first overall in dynasty fantasy leagues, it’s probably for a reason. Or one of two reasons.
Seriously, if you have the top pick, here’s your path to getting it:
- You were the worst team in your league last season
- You traded for the #1 pick
If you were bad enough to “earn” the first overall pick in your dynasty fantasy football draft, it’s very arguable – if not a lock – that Bijan Robinson won’t save you.
No matter how good Robinson is right away in 2023 – and possibly ever – he probably can’t save you from bad team building or the disastrous hole you dug yourself.
Instead of drafting Bijan with the top pick, you should probably dangle it for the best deal possible. Even turning it into two picks and one starter is enough to give your roster a jolt.
Running Backs Have a Short NFL Shelf Life
It’s sad, but it’s true. Even the studliest running backs don’t last forever in the NFL. Just look at last season, too, as Javonte Williams and Breece Hall both suffered major injuries.
Not every rusher has a career like Adrian Peterson, either. Even if you’re physically gifted, you still need the right team, the right system, and some good luck.
I don’t doubt Robinson has most of that go his way, but the running back position has been devalued for a reason; it takes on a ton of punishment and starters don’t typically have a long shelf life.
Obviously Bijan is not in the mold of normal running backs, so he can buck the trend.
That said, historically, running backs don’t put up monster production for very long. You can spend the #1 pick on a guy who will maybe get you 3-5 seasons of elite production, or you can turn him into more assets.
We Don’t Know Who is Drafting Him Yet
As I write this, it’s still early March. In all fairness, we’ll know what NFL team Bijan Robinson will play for in less than two full months.
However, a lot of rookie or even fully dynasty drafts pop off before then, so you have to decide now how to use your top pick.
If your league drafts before the actual NFL Draft, you may want to leave that league.
But if you stay, you may want to trade out of the top spot because you don’t know if Bijan will walk into a less than ideal situation.
For instance, mocking a guy like this to the Eagles or Bills sounds fun, but the reality is those teams don’t utilize running backs properly. That, or they have a quarterback who runs so well that his mere existence could cap Bijan’s upside.
I don’t know if this reason alone is good enough to not draft Bijan Robinson, but it sure doesn’t help.
Your League Likely Devalues the RB Position
Team building is highly subjective across all fantasy football formats, but it’s especially compelling in dynasty leagues. That said, your league’s roster and scoring settings typically dictate how you build your squad.
In most dynasty fantasy leagues, you roster two starting running backs.
Everyone else has a defined non-RB position, or they’re a Flex of some sort. Needless to say, you do want stud production out of those 2+ slots where you can slide a running back in, but you only have to roster a RB in a small percentage of your weekly lineup.
Running backs are immediately less valuable than other positions in most leagues, and once you start talking about SuperFlex formats or the weight of full PPR scoring, it can get even worse.
Sure, if your league values running backs at an insane level, you might want to draft Bijan Robinson. But most leagues won’t.
The 2023 NFL Draft Class is Actually Loaded
Bijan is a man amongst boys. Nobody can refute that. However, in a pure numbers game, he’s actually just one dude in a sea of quality options as we gear up for the 2023 NFL Draft.
He’s the best of the bunch, to be sure, but there are other running backs who are looking very good right about now. There are also franchise passers, some pretty interesting tight ends, and a slew of nasty wide receivers.
From top to bottom, the 2023 NFL Draft class is loaded, and honestly quite a bit underrated.
Not only could you argue passing on Bijan Robinson for reasons above, but you could argue trading down out of the #1 spot to acquire more assets.
Should You Draft Bijan Robinson 1st Overall in 2023 Dynasty Leagues?
I think I’ve given you plenty of reasons for why you shouldn’t draft Bijan Robinson with the top pick in your 2023 dynasty fantasy football league.
However, I will admit he’s a freak and hard to pass up. That, and if you’re losing bad enough to get to this point, you may just want to take the sure thing and run with it.
As far as safety and upside goes, it’s arguable nobody offers a better combo than Bijan this year.
However, you do need to consider context in that he is not some auto pick at #1 overall, regardless of league, settings, format, and roster construction.
Take everything into consideration before making that pick. It just might be the difference between winning and losing in 2023 and beyond.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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