Top NBA DFS Fades for Saturday, 2/4/23
There are a lot of different routes to go with your daily fantasy basketball lineups on Saturday. This post takes a look at some popular paths you should consider not taking.
I’ll look at the players with the highest ownership projection, and gauge if they’re worth rostering or fading at DraftKings.
Here’s a look at three players we need to considering fading in NBA DFS tonight.
Josh Christopher, SG, Houston Rockets ($3.2k)
He’s dirt cheap and may have a role in a smash spot. But that’s where my interest begins to wane. First of all, it’s not like Houston has no bodies. Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate are out, but still.
I’d also prefer Daishen Nix between the two, while it’s possible Jalen Green is back in the saddle tonight.
Obviously if Christopher starts he is in play, but at 35% or more ownership? There is going to be quite a lot of compelling value on this slate. I might take a risk and fade Christopher.
Dorian Finney-Smith, F, Dallas Mavericks ($4.9k)
How many Mavs is too many Mavs? That’s a fair question tonight, as there will be a lot of usage to go around. Why? Because Luka Doncic won’t be playing.
However, you can’t play every Dallas player – nor should you. Spencer Dinwiddie feels like the main guy to start with, but after that it gets a bit dicey.
I’d probably prioritize Tim Hardaway Jr. and maybe even Josh Green ahead of DFS here, while there’s a very real possibility all Dallas starters become overvalued in a potential blowout.
Finney-Smith plays a lot and is a good price. On paper, he’s a fine value. But if he’s going to be mega chalk on a huge slate, I’ll gladly fade him to get different.
Other Players That Will Be Chalky on Saturday
- Dwight Powell, C, Mavs ($4.1k)
- Trendon Watford, C, Blazers ($3k)
- Gabe Vincent, PG, Heat ($3.5k)
Powell is another viable Mavs player we can turn to tonight, but I’ll probably fade him. That’s partially due to there being a ton of good options at center, but also because he is extremely volatile.
Vincent also looks pretty good with Kyle Lowry being ruled out for tonight.
However, beyond that, Miami figures to be at full strength. The value is there, but this could be a good NBA DFS sleeper to ignore.
I actually like Watford. What’s to hate here? He’s the flat min, he has F/C eligibility, and he just smashed last night. I’ll probably have him among my top NBA DFS picks for this slate, but it is hard to ignore two things.
First, he’s going to be crazy owned. Second, recency bias will have people even more in love with him smashing last night. That could just as easily make Drew Eubanks ($3.6k) an amazing pivot in GPPs.
Make your calls with your gut.
My daily fantasy basketball fades column is here for two things; to alert you of wild ownership projections, and to play devil’s advocate.
That doesn’t mean you should fade every player who might be chalky. Watford looks like good chalk, and I also will probably have Dinwiddie everywhere. But eating all the chalk will make your lineup boring and it won’t get to the top of tournaments.
Keep all of that in mind as you finalize your NBA DFS lineups. Good luck!
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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