Week 5 TNF DFS Showdown Picks
Thursday Night Football is back with the arrival of week five, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons prepare to face off.
Games on a short week can be troublesome, but there’s a good amount of offensive firepower in this one, and the game total is a reasonable 44 at most NFL betting sites. The spread is tight (1.5), too, so by all accounts, we should be in for a good game.
But what are the top TNF DFS Showdown picks for this game? Anyone looking to play at DraftKings will want to know who to slide into the Captain slot, as well as what other players belong in the Flex.
It’s a Showdown slate, so basically anything is game. But I’ll consider everything as I highlight my favorite plays en route to a free Thursday Night Football DFS lineup for week 5.
Top TNF DFS Showdown Captain Picks
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons ($12.9k)
- Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers ($15.3k)
- Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons ($8.4k)
- Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers ($9.6k)
Okay, I’m not talking you out of the other studs. Bijan Robinson looks great. So does Drake London. And I am right there with you on Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield. All of those dudes should remain in your player pool, they’re all fine Captain plays, and you should have plenty of exposure to them in your Flex spot.
However, those are literally the four dudes pulling the most TNF DFS ownership at DraftKings. If that sticks, I will gladly slide those guys to the Flex and go chase down less ownership in the Captain slot.
That isn’t to say one of those guys can’t easily smash and ruin my night, but if I really want to score a takedown, I need a unique lineup and the quickest path to that is rostering a Captain that isn’t remotely chalky.
Evans is borders on chalky, to be sure. However, he is a direct pivot off of Godwin, he’s a bit banged up, and he may draw tougher coverage of the two. He’s popped off for 20+ fantasy points twice this year, though, and we know what a TD monster he can be. I will take the risk of getting burned by Godwin if it means getting Evans at less ownership.
Cousins is a bit easier to explain, as he’s coming in with the 7th most ownership in Thursday Night Football Showdown contests. That makes sense, seeing as he’s topped 12 fantasy points just once all season.
His floor is low, but thanks to his supporting cast he does have a ceiling. He just hasn’t found it yet. I don’t think it’s silly to hope he finds it against the Bucs, who have given up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs in 2024.
Don’t want to Captain Cousins? Slide him to the Flex and pair him with (gulp) Kyle Pitts.
I know, it hurts, but Pitts is still an athletic freak and at least in theory, he possesses monster upside. The Bucs haven’t been kind to tight ends, but they’ll be without their top safety in this one and Dallas Goedert (13 fantasy points) was totally fine against them last week.
Pitts is garnering basically no ownership in the Captain slot. It might be a mistake, but I’m going to play the recency bias card and throw caution to the wind here.
Lastly, I am in on Bucky Irving. He has slowly cut into Rachaad White’s workload, and last week he got 42% of the snaps – his highest mark as a rookie. He turned his time on the field into 11 touches and 55 efficient yards (not to mention a score).
This is an ownership and GPP play. Despite his growing role and obvious talent, his ownership is at best split with White, and for the moment White projects to be slightly more owned. Give me the lower owned RB.
Best Flex Chalk to Eat: Bijan Robinson
He’s nicked up and Tyler Allgeier has been eating into his workload, but Bijan Robinson remains the most obvious play on this week 5 TNF DFS Showdown slate.
Robinson hasn’t realized his potential yet, but he hasn’t exactly been a scrub, either. Besides, let’s not forget the awesome catch-and-run touchdown that should have been.
We know Robinson can ball. He’s also the safest play on the board, as he has yet to dip below 11 fantasy points in any game this year. He’s also hauled in 4+ catches in three of four games and has been super consistent despite scoring just one touchdown.
Don’t be shocked if he finds the end-zone here and his all-around ability nets him 20+ fantasy points. But even if he doesn’t, he’s too good to leave out of your TNF DFS lineups.
Top TNF DFS Fade: Rachaad White
It’s never easy to decide who to fade in daily fantasy, but that’s the type of daily fantasy advice we aim to offer.
This could come back to haunt me, but I am taking a stand at RB when it comes to the Bucs. I’ll just be rolling with the lower-owned Bucky Irving, for better or for worse.
If Tampa Bay wants to find more success, they’ll do the same. I will admit that White is still a fine play in general, but that’s if we know he has a role. His snap count was a season-low 58% last week, and he hasn’t topped 10.4 fantasy points since week one.
The guy has zero TD equity on the year, too. Maybe I’m wrong and this is his breakout game. But you can’t second-guess in DFS. I’m just going to leverage his Flex ownership and pull the fade card.
Best Thursday Night Football Value: Sterling Shepard
What a story this is. The former Giant has overcome numerous injuries and different obstacles, while he legit was done with football before the Bucs gave him a call this off-season.
The 31-year old can still play, as he turned five targets into three catches for 51 yards last week. Now, he’s looking at a sizable role with both Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan already ruled out for this contest.
Shepard logged 65% of the snaps at wide receiver in week four, and I’d expect something similar against the Falcons. If that ends up being the case, he is a smash value in the Flex, and is still way too low-owned.
To be frank, I don’t even mind him in the Captain slot. He’d save a ton of cash, his role is big enough to hope for a ceiling game, and you could roster basically anyone you want.
Free TNF DFS Showdown Lineup for Week 5
- Captain: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers ($15.3k)
- Flex: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons ($9.8k)
- Flex: Drake London, WR, Falcons ($13.2k)
- Flex: Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers ($9.6k)
- Flex: Sterling Sherpard, WR, Buccaneers ($1.6k)
- Flex: Ray-Ray McCloud III, WR, Falcons ($3.4k)
Right now the Captain ownership favors the Falcons. As does the point spread. Three of the four highest owned players overall on this TNF DFS Showdown slate are ATL players, too.
That doesn’t mean that won’t be correct, nor that you should fade Falcons players. I am responding to that ownership by eating the chalk on 2 of the 3 (London/Bijan). I still really like Kirk – both in the Captain and Flex – but if I am making one lineup, I am taking a stand against the Falcons chalk.
Mike Evans feels like an amazing Captain and I think he’s my favorite of the slate.
He’s not quite 100%, he’s the most expensive option, and he might have the toughest individual matchup. All of that plays into him garnering just the 6th most ownership overall, and 5th most in the Captain.
I don’t need to take a deep dive at Captain. I’ll just Captain Evans and if he can respond with 20+ points like he’s already done twice this year, I get a low-owned stud and I’m off to a great start.
Elsewhere, Shepard and McCloud are just too good of values to pass up. They’re dirt cheap and they’ll be out on the field a ton. I could Captain them, but why gamble that hard? I’ll just get them in my Flex and then go get Baker to stack with my Bucs receivers.
I’m fading the Buccaneers RBs in this TNF DFS Showdown lineup, but they’re sharing the workload and the matchup (ATL ranks 8th vs RBs) isn’t that amazing.
Whether you use my lineup or not, hopefully my week 5 TNF DFS Showdown picks offer some insight and helps you in your own process. For a more detailed breakdown, watch the video at the top of the post.
Want the top plays for the main slate this week? Check out my NFL week 5 DFS picks to use at DraftKings.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
Latest posts by DFS Keanu (see all)
- Week 5 NFL DFS Picks – Top Plays at DraftKings - October 3, 2024
- Week 5 TNF DFS Showdown Picks - October 3, 2024
- NFL DFS Sleepers for Week 2 – Best Values at DraftKings - September 13, 2024
One thought on “Week 5 TNF DFS Showdown Picks”
Comments are closed.