NBA DFS Fades for Monday, 1/9/2023 – Should You Pay Up for Nikola Jokic?
Welcome to the first NBA DFS fades post of 2023. Or ever, really. This column focuses on chalky players you may want to fade in a given daily fantasy basketball slate, and offers alternative options.
That doesn’t mean these players are always bad plays. Eating chalk – even when you don’t want to – is often necessary. That can particularly be the case in NBA DFS. But if there is another path to take that can potentially get you to the promise land, you’ll need to consider it.
Please also keep in mind that my NBA DFS fade picks are offered up early in the day, so monitor news and ownership % changes and adjust accordingly. That said, here are three players I may fade tonight at Draft Kings:
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets ($11.7k)
The Joker is a great play. He is. He’s facing a suspect Lakers team, he has the best projection on the slate (60.47 per RotoGrinders.com) and he’s torched the Lake Show this year.
Here’s what he’s averaged in three starts against King James and co.
- 26.3 points
- 12.7 rebounds
- 7.7 assists
- 60.5 fantasy points
All of that looks great, so where’s the bad part?
For one, this could easily be a blowout. L.A. doesn’t have Anthony Davis, and most online sportsbooks have the Nuggets as 10-point home favorites.
Jokic should smash, but will you get four quarters from him? That’s no guarantee.
There’s also quite a few viable pivots. LeBron James is the obvious one in this same game, but the best one is Giannis Antetokounmpo. After delivering one of the worst performances of his entire career, my guess is he shows up tonight.
Jokic is a stud, but he’s coming in at 17% ownership as I write this. If that sticks, I’ll gladly pivot to The Greek Freak or consider a different, more balanced build that doesn’t include him.
Daniel Gafford, C, Washington Wizards ($4.7k)
I have no issue with Gafford, either. He’s a really good points per minute guy, and he has a solid 27.48 projection to go along with 27 projected minutes.
He’ll start and get a beatable Pelicans defense and team that is still missing Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
The problem? He is super prone to foul trouble and he’s projected to be 23% owned on this slate. There is a pretty good chance he bombs in this spot, so unless there is no other value that opens up, I will look to get away from him tonight.
Grant Williams, F, Boston Celtics ($3.5k)
There is no denying Williams is a viable salary saver tonight. That’s especially true with starting guard Marcus Smart listed as doubtful for his tilt with the Chicago Bulls.
That puts Williams in play, but I will be fading at his insane 26% ownership rate. It’s obviously very possibly that number drops considerably, and I do still think Malcolm Brogdon looks like good chalk.
However, I want none of Williams at that percentage. I’ll be looking for value elsewhere.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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