2023 Fantasy Football Profile for Christian Watson – When to Draft the Packers WR
Green Bay Packers second-year wide receiver Christian Watson looks to be on of the more polarizing figures in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
With a rising ADP (WR21 at the moment), many are wondering if he’s really worth the trouble of drafting this year.
More importantly, can you actually trust him?
To find out, let’s look over some key talking points and decide when and where (or if at all) you should draft Christian Watson in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
The Guy is a Freak Athlete
Two things usually tell us if someone is worth drafting in fantasy football, and they often can weirdly be interchangeable.
Those two things would be talent and opportunity.
For Watson, his talent is currently mostly attached to his size and incredible athleticism.
He still has work to do as a route-runner, but his explosiveness, size, and athleticism tend to allow him to get open, anyways.
Just look at his Reception Perception card from 2021.
Watson is good at finding success more often than not, and Aaron Rodgers once praised him in saying that he is almost always open. Conventional wisdom suggests another year in Matt LaFleur’s system would see him improve across the board, too.
Even if his progression is moderate, though, he has the athletic edge over almost every defensive back he’ll go up against. That elite athletic profile means he’ll be on the field a ton, and should be a key weapon in Green Bay’s offense.
With that locked in opportunity, it’s no wonder he’s creeping up 2023 fantasy football draft boards.
Watson (Probably) Has a Massive Role in Green Bay’s Offense
When it comes to NBA DFS, minutes are the lifeblood of the community. The more time spent on the court, the more likely you are to accrue fantasy points.
The same goes for the NFL, but your time on the field is instead measured in snap count. Watson instantly saw major action as a rookie in 2022, with 66% of the snaps in week one.
However, his fateful drop at Minnesota – plus nagging injuries – largely kept him on the shelf until week 10. Watson finally topped 60% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps for the first time since his pro debut, and he did not disappoint.
That was one big game, but many chalked it up as a fluke.
To be fair, scoring three times in a game is pretty fluky. However, Watson kept on scoring touchdowns, as he scored two more the following week, and found the end-zone in each of his next two outings.
For those keeping score at home, that’s seven total receiving scores in just four games.
Watson did regress a bit after Green Bay’s week 14 bye, but he got hurt again on the road against the Dolphins. Beyond that contest, he had 60% of the snaps in seven of his final eight games, and produced 10+ fantasy points in six of them.
Assessing the Risk with Christian Watson
I will admit there are some issues with Watson. He hasn’t always displayed the most reliable hands, Aaron Rodgers left via a trade to the Jets, and the Packers did bring in more competition at his position.
Watson seemed to fix his drop issues as the 2022 season went on, though, while history has shown us time and again that talent can overcome mental miscues.
The drop-off from Rodgers to Jordan Love is obviously concerning, but it’s at least arguable there is just as much room for optimism. Rodgers wasn’t very good last season, after all, while Love connected with Watson for a touchdown against the Eagles last year.
As for the competition, the Packers did bring a lot of guys in, but nobody can really match Watson’s explosiveness or overall upside.
I don’t buy the MVS comparison, either. MVS was a speedster, but Watson is a way better athlete and a more versatile weapon, as a whole.
All this said, we’re getting to a point with Watson’s ADP where we need to be careful in redraft fantasy football leagues.
If you take him, you’re bypassing seemingly more stable products (who also exhibit solid upside) like Drake London, Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore, and others.
Of course, league type plays into this.
I see the concern for redraft, but Watson is going to be very appealing in both dynasty and best ball formats, regardless of any lingering hesitance.
When Should You Draft Christian Watson in 2023?
Assessing Christian Watson’s 2023 fantasy outlook isn’t exactly easy. He was raw coming into his rookie year, he dealt with some soft tissue issues, and he lost a Hall of Fame quarterback.
On the flip side, he is a legit freak athlete that flashed insane efficiency in a short window. How you view him may depend on just how much risk you’re willing to absorb.
Ultimately, I still want as much Christian Watson as I can comfortably get my hands on in 2023.
I do prefer to roster him in best ball (where his spike weeks will prove extra useful) or dynasty, where you have more time to gauge his long-term value.
That said, I still like Watson’s upside too much to take other guys with similar question marks ahead of him. I’ll just be crossing my fingers his ADP dips back down a bit prior to August drafts.
The aforementioned receivers in his draft range? They all have their perks, but their quarterback situation isn’t any less shaky.
In the end, Watson has more upside than anyone in his ADP range for redraft leagues.
That’s a matter of opinion, but when factoring his 2022 hot stretch, his athletic traits, and his suspected role, he still feels like a solid value and worth taking at his current draft position.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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