Top NFL DFS Picks for Saturday, 1/6 (2023) – Stick with the Studs

Few thought the benching of Derek Carr would lead to a massive performance by Jarrett Stidham. As it turns out, the masses were wrong.

If only for one week, Stidham made Josh McDaniels look like a genius, and come Saturday, anyone looking to build week 18 NFL DFS lineups will once again have to consider making the ultimate punt.

Chaos will undoubtedly ensue on Saturday, of course. It’s a tiny two-game slate, the Raiders have nothing to play for, and they’re facing the mighty Chiefs. Elsewhere, the Titans and Jaguars face off for the AFC South and a ticket to postseason play.

So, how do you build your NFL DFS lineups on a slate like this? On a wing and a prayer, to be sure. Regardless, I’m here to hand out my favorite plays.

Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes – Chiefs ($8.4k)

It won’t be easy to get to Mahomes, but you have to try. He is expensive, but he’s averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game on the season, and he’s put up 23+ in each of his last four outings.

KC also happens to be trying to lock up the #1 seed in the AFC, and Mahomes dropped in four scores (30.48 Draft Kings points) the last time he faced a weak Las Vegas defense.

Mahomes is the drug of choice at quarterback, but there are enough good plays to tempt you to eat the value here.

The cheap play is none other than Jarrett Stidham, who went absolutely bonkers in a start last week.

Should we demand that type of effort again? No, of course not. That said, he’s shown what he’s capable of, and he does have plenty of weapons to go to war with. That, and the banished Derek Carr did managed a respectable 17 fantasy points against this Chiefs defense back in week five.

Kansas City can also be had through the air, as they enter the finale ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Running Back: Derrick Henry – Titans ($8k)

The Titans and Jags are playing for a shot at the playoffs, so you better believe King Henry is showing up for this one. He had last week off to rest up, too, so Jacksonville is about to get a heavy dose of this human sledge hammer.

Henry happens to have quite the productive history against his divisional foes, too.

The past doesn’t always predict the future, but it’s not like Henry (21 fantasy points per game) has been weak in 2022. He even slapped the Jags around a few weeks ago, when he piled on 155 total yards and a touchdown en route to 25.5 fantasy points.

I’d expect similar results with Tennessee’s season on the line. Besides, it’s not like the Titans are major threats to take it to the air with Ryan Tannehill on the sidelines.

While Henry is a lock for me, there is merit in fading him. He’s expensive, and the Titans will likely be fairly one-dimensional. If you go that route, his opponent, Travis Etienne, could be the main play to target at running back.

Looking to really save cash at running back? Monitor the Raiders’ backfield. Josh Jacobs is banged up and guys like Brandon Bolden and Zamir White ($4k) could offer insane value.

Wide Receiver: Davante Adams – Raiders ($8.8k)

Whether you punt with Stidham or not, paying up for the best wide receiver on this two-game slate makes a lot of sense. There is as much merit to fading Tae on this small slate, but he also reminded us last week just how dominant he can be.

Despite the quarterback change and a tough date with the 49ers, he still went bananas:

• 11 targets
• 7 receptions
• 153 receiving yards
• 2 TDs

The connection between Adams and Stidham apparently doesn’t suck. Expecting that again might be a reach, but let’s not forget that Tae destroyed the Chiefs last time out (124 yards and 2 scores) on just three catches.

Obviously I don’t really need to beat you over the head to get the picture; Davante Adams is worth paying up for. If you want some value at receiver, though, maybe look to Kadarius Toney.

Mahomes does a fantastic job of targeting Travis Kelce to death and then spreading the love elsewhere, but Toney is supremely talented and is simply too cheap.

Tight End: Travis Kelce – Chiefs ($7.9k)

Forgive me for pointing you to all of the studs, but this is a damn two-game slate, people. Hopefully you’re paying mind to the value plays I am also highlighting along the way.

But really, don’t fade Travis Kelce here. The dude scored four freaking times the last time he faced Las Vegas.

Yeah, the guy had himself a day.

Kelce probably won’t do that again, but he’s eyeing records once again to close out the season, and KC needs to win to lock up the top seed in the AFC. He’s a good bet to get his in this spot.

I won’t disappoint by leaving you with no value, though. After all, you will need to find it somewhere. One way to save some salary is to target Evan Engram, who has been a reliable source of production for the Jags.

He, too, is facing a division rival who he abused in his previous meeting. Remember when Engram went off for a disturbing 11-162-2 stat line? Yeah, that came at the expense of the Titans.

I can’t imagine he does that again, but he’s way too cheap for his role and matchup this week.

Defense: Tennessee Titans ($2.8k)

You gotta play a defense on this tiny slate, and none of them look all that appealing. If you’re not using Stidham, the Chiefs do look okay, although they’re pricey.

I’d rather save money here and bank on a defensive score with a unit like the Titans. If things go their way, the young Trevor Lawrence will unravel, and their power run game will keep this game low-scoring and tight.

That should be enough to get them 6-10 fantasy points. On this slate, that will hopefully get it done.

This slate certainly isn’t great, but there’s a chance it could perform above expectations. I think you need to start your build with these top NFL DFS picks, though, and then look to some of the value I mentioned.

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DFS Keanu

Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade

DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.

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