Is Darren Waller a Top 10 Tight End for 2023 Fantasy Football?
Darren Waller has had a roller coaster career. He was barely drafted (6th round) in the 2015 NFL Draft, and he nearly washed out of the league due to addiction issues.
Thankfully, the Raiders gave him a second chance, and former Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden turned him into a fantasy football god.
A wide receiver by nature, Waller hauled in an insane 90 grabs for 1,145 yards in his breakout campaign in 2019. What did he do for an encore? Nothing but up his catch count to 107 receptions, churn out 1,196 more yards, and score nine times.
Waller admittedly regressed the next two years, but largely due to injury. The arrival of superstar Davante Adams in 2022 didn’t help matters, either.
While his last two seasons have most fantasy football managers souring on his prospects, Waller is still just 30 years old and could be a key contributor after being traded to the New York Giants.
So, should you trust in him in 2023 fantasy football? I think so. Here’s why.
Waller Maintained Elite PPR Production in 2021
First off, Waller hasn’t really lost much as a fantasy asset. Before Adams arrived in Las Vegas, Waller was a top 5 tight end two years in a row.
It’s quite possible he’d have made it three, but injuries derailed a 2021 season where he put up 55 catches and 665 yards.
Stretch that out over a full season, and he’s still on pace for 80 catches and 967 receiving yards.
Waller hasn’t historically been a touchdown machine. However, he’s a PPR demon and he did flash scoring upside in his best season. Provided he’s at full strength, there’s reason to believe he can be that guy again.
New York Doesn’t Have a Davante Adams to Demand Targets
Waller only suited up for nine games last year, but he still racked up 28 catches on 43 targets. That’s not a lot, but he was still on pace to top 50 receptions despite another massive mouth to feed in Adams.
Nothing to write home about, but the presence of Adams was always going to hurt Waller. He wasn’t at full strength, either, so we really need to consider 2022 a total wash and move on.
The good news? Waller simply doesn’t have anyone like Adams to compete with in New York.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the team’s best wide receiver, but he’s recovering from a serious injury. Parris Campbell is a free agency addition, while guys like Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins aren’t as talented as Waller.
You look for role and talent in situations like these, and Waller checks both boxes.
Daniel Jones Has Enjoyed Success with Tight Ends
The New York Giants don’t throw a ton, admittedly. They have Saquon Barkley leading the ground game, and Daniel Jones is quite the threat with his legs, as well.
However, the G-Men just invested heavily in Jones as the future of their franchise under center.
New York also as aspirations to make a deep playoff run, so logic would suggest they try to expand their horizons a bit.
Needless to say, a career high in pass attempts could be coming for Jones. He already showed solid growth when it comes to his decision-making, so maybe getting a marquee talent could help him explode.
It isn’t like Jones hasn’t been able to connect with tight ends, either.
Despite often battling issues with drops, Evan Engram churned out 63 catches on a healthy 106 targets in 2020. What he did the year before was even more encouraging, as he piled on 44 catches for 467 yards and three scores in just eight games with Jones.
That stretches out to a sick 88 receptions, 934 receiving yards, and six scores.
Obviously extrapolating isn’t an exact science. However, Engram was on an insane tear in 2019, and he continued to be targeted heavily the year after.
The point? Jones isn’t shy about going to athletic tight ends and Waller is even more polished as a route-runner and receiver than Engram was.
Should You Draft Darren Waller in 2023 Fantasy Drafts?
The first question is if Darren Waller is worth drafting in 2023 fantasy football leagues. There is risk involved, but regardless of format I’d say yes.
The lone caveat is price.
Waller is worth drafting or acquiring via trade in dynasty leagues simply because the cost shouldn’t be staggering. He’s unlikely to cost much in dynasty drafts, and most people will give away a 30+ year old tight end on a new team for a 2nd round pick and possibly far less.
I like him for dynasty for now, but he’s ideally a redraft acquisition.
Waller could still have 2-3 very good seasons ahead of him, but banking on anything more than that might be a reach. Instead, I’d focus on getting him at a discount in redraft leagues in 2023.
Doing so won’t be easy, of course. Others are quick to spot Waller’s talent, previous success, and upside in a new offense as one of the clear top options.
That’s led to a rising ADP and Waller being the fifth tight end off the board in early 2023 fantasy football drafts. I actually like him more than Kyle Pitts and George Kittle for the coming season, so the value isn’t bad.
However, if you can hang tight and get him a round later than he’s presently going, I like him even more.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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