NBA DFS Fades for Thursday, 2/23
Welcome back to NBA DFS, folks. The days of playing daily fantasy hockey and betting on college basketball are finally behind you.
Truth be told, there’s actually money to be made in just about every DFS and betting genre. However, I am not personally an expert in those, so I am thrilled to have daily fantasy basketball back.
With that, we get a massive 9-game slate, and since we’ve had a big break, it’s anyone’s guess how this first slate back actually goes. That said, I’ll be looking at some early ownership numbers and telling you some guys I will likely be fading.
Damian Lillard, PG, Blazers ($11.4k)
Lillard’s ownership may change, but for now he’s coming in at a whopping 32%. I just see zero reason to force him into my NBA DFS lineups if he’s going to be that chalky.
He has as much upside as anyone, to be clear. He even enters this slate with the top projection, which does make sense with both Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons sidelined.
You can easily talk yourself into Dame with added usage coming his way, but I’d rather just use a lower-owned stud like Luka Doncic, Joel Embiiod, or Nikola Jokic and just hope they’re better than Lillard tonight.
Jordan Clarkson, SG, Jazz ($7.5k)
Clarkson is a significant drop down from Lillard in terms of upside, but he is going to eat tonight. Russell Westbrook never made it to the Jazz, while Collin Sexton won’t suit up tonight.
That gives Clarkson more shots and assist chances, and he predictably projects well (41+ fantasy points).
The problem? He’s coming in at 28% ownership. I still think he’s a solid play at this price, but he’s also not exactly cheap. I’d much rather eat the THT chalk, as he’s just $4.8k and projects for 25+ minutes and 28+ fantasy points.
Brandon Clarke, F/C, Grizzlies ($4.5k)
Lastly, I will touch on Clarke, who is a good value on a slate that is weirdly absent of it. He’s cheap and should get some burn with Steven Adams still out, but he also will go up against Joel Embiid a bit.
Clarke is pretty appealing if he doesn’t start, but even if he does, I don’t love the matchup or his tendency to get into foul trouble.
More concerning? The lack of value is making a seemingly decent play unattractive thanks to 11% ownership. That isn’t obscene, but in SE tournaments I would be shocked if it’s not considerably higher.
Ultimately, these are the three guys I am probably not using much (if at all) when building my NBA DFS lineups on Thursday.
I will agree that they all look appealing for different reasons. Lillard has monstrous upside, Clarkson has a huge role, and Clarke is cheap.
That said, they’re all projected to be very owned, and on a nine-game slate, you don’t need to eat chalk if there are equal or better options elsewhere.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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