NFL DFS Picks for Conference Championship Week (2023) – Stack the Bengals?
This weekend offers up our last legit daily fantasy football slate of the year. Next up is the Super Bowl showdown slate, and then we’re talking about the XFL and USFL.
There will still be money to be made, but let’s try to take advantage of one last normal slate.
It’s still a tiny one, and it’s a bit tough to gauge with a bunch of studs nicked up. Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and the 49ers have four key players who aren’t at 100%.
That said, I’ll try to point you in the right direction with my top NFL DFS picks for this week.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6.8k)
Burrow has the best matchup for quarterbacks on this slate, and yet he has the third highest salary. I’m not about to pay a premium for a hobbled Patrick Mahomes, and I also don’t trust a rookie like Brock Purdy against an opportunistic Eagles defense.
Jalen Hurts is my only pivot here, and he’s just $400 more. He’s definitely viable, and my final decision may come down to ownership.
As things stand, Burrow has the third highest ownership percentage (23%). He rocked the Chiefs for 30 fantasy points earlier this year, and there’s something about this Bengals team that I can’t ignore.
With his matchup, price, ownership, and weapons, he’s shaping up as the top QB play for me.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($8k)
The 49ers have to be coming into this game knowing they need to lean on their running game – hard.
It is obviously concerning that their best rusher isn’t exactly at full strength, though.
Still, C-Mac generated 17 fantasy points on 18 touches last week, and I have to imagine he’ll be ready to rock in this game.
There aren’t many easy matchups on paper at this point, but McCaffrey probably is in the best spot at this point. Philly was a middling unit against the run in 2022, and dominating on the ground is what San Francisco does.
Besides, it’s not like stacked boxes have fazed this guy, anyways.
Even if he gets most of his production as a receiver and/or scores on short runs, I think starting your NFL DFS lineups with McCaffrey is a wise choice.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($5.4k)
Me telling you to play Higgins is the same as me telling you to not play Ja’Marr Chase. You can play them together. However, I really like Higgins here, as he’s simply way too cheap.
Chase may also end up being quite necessary, especially since he’s owned KC in his career. Just look at what he did against them last year:
That said, he’s not cheap, and it stands to reason that the Chiefs will do everything they can to limit Chase’s impact on this game.
Whether that’s true or Cincy just uses him as a decoy more than normal, I think Higgins has a shot at a big game. The Chiefs ranked just 25th against fantasy wide receivers in 2022, and they’re just not equipped to completely shut this Bengals passing game down.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($7.8k)
I do think there is merit in fading Kelce this week. He’s not cheap, for one, and if you pay for him, it’s possible you have to fade Chase and perhaps also the top Eagles’ receivers.
On top of that, Hayden Hurst has been solid for Cincy, and George Kittle could always have a huge game.
If you think either to be true, go ahead and fade Kelce. Personally, I’m afraid of doing so, and last week’s huge performance is a reminder of why.
Kelce also happens to have the best matchup on the board for fantasy tight ends. He also wasn’t great earlier this season against Cincy (he even lost a fumble), and he was pretty vocal about it.
I think he aims to redeem himself here and has another huge outing.
Other NFL DFS Picks for Conference Championship Week
- Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles ($7.2k)
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($5.4k)
- Eli Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($4.9k)
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($4.4k)
- KaDarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($3.7k)
- George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers ($5.2k)
- Cincinnati Bengals Defense ($2.3k)
If you’re not rolling with Burrow, go with Hurts. He has the best floor of anyone in here, and he probably has the highest ceiling, too. I am just preferring Burrow due to lower ownership and the better matchup right now.
You will need at least one cheap running back. McKinnon could be more involved as a receiver in this one, while I expect the Niners to find success on the ground. Mitchell can be a leverage play against McCaffrey, or you can pair them together.
Cheap receivers are a must, and Aiyuk is just too low-priced. Toney was pretty active with seven targets last week and is probably too cheap given his explosive ability.
If you fade Kelce, go get Kittle. His matchup isn’t ideal, but Purdy knows how to find him. He’s put up 12+ fantasy points in five of his last six games.
Defense is the easiest spot to punt on this tiny daily fantasy football slate. I’m going with the Bengals, even though I expect their showdown with Kansas City to be fairly high-scoring.
Writer at Daily Fantasy Fade
DFS Keanu has been covering fantasy sports, DFS, and props for the better part of a decade, all while fighting The Matrix and a litany of assassins.
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